What Condo Bust?

Holliday Fenoglio Fowler – South Florida CFO 2012 – Feb 9th, 2012

1450 Brickell, 34th Floor (Unfinished)

When I heard at the beggining of the year that the Downtown Miami condo market had gone from a supply of 20,000+ units to only 2,000+ units, I thought it was just developer hype.  However, after speaking with the folks at CBRE and Peter Zalewski at Condo Vultures, I believe that this may be true.

At HFF’s CMO last week, I got the following data from Manny de Zarraga:

  • 12 year supply ended in 4 years – Down to 8% of the +22,000 CBD Units.
  • Q2 2011 – CBD average per month equal 250 condo sales and 375 leases.
  • CBD Condo prices up 30% from trough.
  • Proposed Condos – Brickell to sell at $350 and $850 psf in sunny Isles.
  • Capital Markets curious and dipping toes back in.
  • Only 5 rental only buildings in CBD all with =95% occupancy
  • Rental rates at top equal to $2.20PSF with 6.8% growth expected for 2012 – top tier in US.
  • New Rental development projected at sub-6% return on cost.
  • Who is the #1 salesperson for condos in Miami?    Hugo Chavez!

See these related links

MIAMI TODAY    http://www.miamitodaynews.com/news/120209/story7.shtml

GLOBE STREET     http://www.globest.com/news/12_286/miami/residential/BrickellHouse-Sells-Half-of-Pre-Developed-Condo-Units-in-First-Four-Months-318672.html?ET=globest:e29193:510261a:&st=email

, Market Reports, Multifamily/Condo

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